Social learning is the process by which workers observe the successes or failures of peers to update their own beliefs about the feasibility and benefits of collective action. Research indicates that when workers witness a successful unionization effort nearby, they are significantly more likely to support unionization themselves because they perceive it as a viable and effective path to improved working conditions (Derenoncourt et al., 2025). This phenomenon suggests that union growth is not merely a product of economic grievance, but a result of information diffusion and social influence within specific industries and geographic regions.
According to a 2025 study by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) analyzing union election data from 1961 to 2025, a single close union victory in a state-industry cluster increases the probability of future successful elections in that same sector by a measurable margin. This "contagion effect" demonstrates that the success of one group provides a blueprint and boosts the psychological confidence of others, effectively lowering the perceived risks associated with organizing.
Union wins trigger future successes by reducing uncertainty and signaling that the costs of organizing are lower than previously assumed. When a union wins a vote, it serves as a credible signal to workers in similar environments that collective bargaining is possible and that their employers are not invincible. This evidence-based observation shifts worker sentiment from skepticism to optimism, as the "win" acts as a proof-of-concept for the surrounding labor market.
In an experiment involving 9,000 low-wage workers, researchers found that providing information about recent, local union victories had a profound impact on individual support for unions (Derenoncourt et al., 2025). Conversely, providing information about general labor market tightness—such as low unemployment rates or high job availability—had little to no effect on union support. This suggests that the decision to unionize is driven more by the social proof of collective success than by purely macroeconomic conditions or individual bargaining power.
The influence of social learning is most pronounced among workers in "weak information environments"—those with little access to accurate, positive information about union outcomes—and those with low baseline support from their coworkers. For these workers, the barrier to organizing is often a lack of perceived support from their peers. When they see a successful union drive, it validates their own desire for change and provides the necessary social cover to advocate for a union themselves.
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More from GroundworkIf you are evaluating the potential for unionization in your own workplace, your assessment is likely shaped by the information available to you. If your industry has seen recent successful organizing efforts, you are statistically more likely to view unionization as an effective tool. If, however, your workplace remains isolated from such "success stories," the perceived risk of attempting to organize often outweighs the potential benefits, leading to a status quo bias that is difficult to break.
Information influences the decision to organize by reshaping workers' beliefs about their coworkers' preferences. Many workers refrain from supporting a union not because they dislike the idea, but because they fear they are the only ones who feel that way. Witnessing a successful union win changes this perception, effectively signaling that a majority (or at least a viable coalition) of peers shares the same goal.
This mechanism highlights the importance of communication in organizational change. The NBER study demonstrates that "social learning" acts as a catalyst for growth, where the visibility of union outcomes is a stronger driver of behavior than the underlying economic reality of the labor market. In practical terms, this means that the spread of information regarding successful collective action is the primary engine behind the "spurts" of union growth observed historically across the United States.
If you are considering collective action, the data suggests that your success depends heavily on the flow of information within your industry. To build momentum, organizers focus on creating clear, accessible channels for sharing information about victories. This reduces the isolation that often stalls organizing efforts.
- Identify your local context: Look at recent labor activity in your specific industry and state. Successes in your immediate sector are more predictive of potential success for you than national trends.
- Evaluate your information environment: Recognize that if you feel isolated, it may be a result of limited communication with peers rather than a lack of shared interest.
- Prioritize peer-to-peer communication: Since social learning is the primary driver of growth, focus on building direct, transparent relationships with coworkers to share accurate information about union goals and outcomes.
- Focus on proof of concept: When discussing unionization, emphasize concrete examples of how collective bargaining has functioned in similar settings, as this addresses the primary psychological barrier of uncertainty.
By understanding that union growth is a social process, you can better navigate the complexities of workplace advocacy. The evidence confirms that success is indeed contagious, and the visibility of one win can transform the labor landscape for those who follow.
