The Four-Box Test That Tells You If AI Is Coming For Your Job

Bottom Line Up Front

According to empirical research synthesized by Groundwork, up to 70% of your tasks can be automated, but only 15% of those are high-priority tasks that can significantly impact your job security. This four-box test will help you identify which tasks are at risk and which ones are safe.

The Four-Box Test

In a recent class at London Business School, I taught students a simple exercise to assess the impact of technology on their work. It involves categorizing tasks into four boxes based on two dimensions: routine vs. nonroutine and manual vs. cognitive.

Step 1: Identify Your Tasks

Start by listing the tasks you perform in a normal week. Most people have around 30 tasks. This matters because technology rarely replaces an entire job; it replaces specific tasks. You need to know which ones.

Step 2: Categorize Your Tasks

Next, ask two questions about each task:

• Is it routine or nonroutine?
• Is it manual or cognitive?

Line up these dimensions and you'll get four categories:

Step 3: Analyze Your Categories

Now that you have your tasks categorized, let's take a closer look at each category and the impact on work:

• Routine/Manual Tasks: These tasks are likely to be completely automated in the future. Examples include packing chocolates, metal pressing, and operating forklifts.
• Routine/Cognitive Tasks: These tasks are also likely to be automated, but at a slower pace. Examples include factor analysis statistics, spreadsheet assistance, and bank teller roles.
• Nonroutine/Manual Tasks: While these tasks were once expected to be automated, they are still relatively safe. Examples include driving a car, sorting laundry, and plumbing a house.
• Nonroutine/Cognitive Tasks: These tasks are the least likely to be automated and are often the most valuable. Examples include teaching a class, writing a book, and analyzing data.

Empirical Decision Matrix

Here's a comparison table to help you evaluate the impact of AI on your job: