How social learning drives union growth

What is the role of social learning in union growth?

Social learning is the process by which workers observe the successes or failures of peers to update their own beliefs about the feasibility and benefits of collective action. Research indicates that when workers witness a successful unionization effort nearby, they are significantly more likely to support unionization themselves because they perceive it as a viable and effective path to improved working conditions (Derenoncourt et al., 2025). This phenomenon suggests that union growth is not merely a product of economic grievance, but a result of information diffusion and social influence within specific industries and geographic regions.

According to a 2025 study by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) analyzing union election data from 1961 to 2025, a single close union victory in a state-industry cluster increases the probability of future successful elections in that same sector by a measurable margin. This "contagion effect" demonstrates that the success of one group provides a blueprint and boosts the psychological confidence of others, effectively lowering the perceived risks associated with organizing.

Why do union wins trigger future successes?